Development of probabilistic models for quantitative pathway
Agra CEAS Consulting was part of a team led by Imperial College, London which developed a probabilistic quantitative pathway analysis model for EFSA that can be used in risk assessment for plant pest introduction into EU territory on a range of edible commodities (apples, oranges, stone fruits and wheat). Two models were produced. The first simulated the distribution of an imported infested/infected commodity to and within the EU from source countries by month. The second model simulated the movement and distribution of individual consignments from source countries to destinations in the EU. The transfer potential to domestic host crops was modelled at the regional level within the EU. The model is published by EFSA as an external scientific report and can be accessed here.